Chris Froome Tour de l'Ain Power Analysis : Should Ineos take Froome to Tour de France?

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100+ comentarios:

I love when these guys don’t change the default Strava name for the rides and it says “Lunch Ride”, etc. World class elite race, holding ridiculously high wattages, and it says Lunch Ride....
Andrew Parker
Andrew Parker:
I'll be very disappointed if there is no Lanterne Rouge-related paint/graffiti on the roads at this years' tour. I dream about Bernal launching one whilst riding over the words THERMONUCLEAR ATTACK emulsioned in 3 metre high letters with 2km to go at La Planche des Belle Filles
Daniel Chow
Daniel Chow:
Chris Froome rode for Bernal, Tom Dumoulin rode for Roglic. Richie Porte... I think he wanted to ride for Mollema but Mollema got dropped so Richie attacked.

I feel the end of an era.
Joe Thompson
Joe Thompson:
Froome will go, he is a master at peaking at the right time and whilst i don't expect him to win ( Roglic or Bernal for me) he can definitely do a job for Ineos. He is now older and coming off that horrific injury but he is a 4 time champion gunning for 5, never count him out-remember the Giro!
Vasco Amaral Grilo
Vasco Amaral Grilo:
Great content, thanks Lanter Rouge!

IMO, Froome is worth taking fir sure for the Tour. I believe he clearly will not be sufficiently fit at the 1st week to go for GC, but I guess he will be in good shape during the 3rd week, where it will be superuseful to Bernal. I also think that all the social media Froome has generated in recent months was with the goal of getting a wealthy contract at some other team, as in Ineos his time was coming to an end (I believe Ineos did not believe Froome can return to a level where he is capable of winning the Tour, the sole leadership question was just an excuse).
Cycling switchbacks🇪🇺
Cycling switchbacks🇪🇺:
I think Froome will go, he's very experienced with his training and knowing his form. Also he's likely to improve whereas maybe Bernal has been a little hot too soon. Roglic is flying, but he also has made errors with his peak form in the past.
p c
p c:
Thanks for the great analysis. It quite confirms Froome, when he said that he is on the right track after Occitaine, when everyone doubted him. My prediction is: Either Froome or Dumoulin will win the Tour. Froome will win, when JV supports Roglic, who will make mistakes and has a weaker TT than Froome. Dumoulin wins, when he gets confidence in himself, because he is the only guy with the class to beat Froome, I think. Roglic seems to be overconfident. The problem for TD is, that he needs to go for one or two half-descent attacks in the Dauphine, to get the feeling of how good he really is. Well, or Kruijswijk with a surprise attack; I would be less surprised to see SK win than PR wining it.
Ketzal Sterling
Ketzal Sterling:
Great video, I think you're slightly underestimating Froome's potential. I don't think he'll win. My gut tells me Bernal and Roglic will contest the overall GC. However, Froome will be close, possibly on the podium. He's just far too resilient to be so easily discounted.
Froome is a world class rider and should certainly go to the TdF- Certainly, INEOS will need all the legs that they can get to deal with JV.

The issue is whether he should LEAD the team, and the fact is that his team which took him from pack fodder to Vuelta winner in 1 year; the team that has reams of performance data over a decade passed on the chance to name him leader for the TdF-

That says a lot more than a slightly redacted strava file of a single ride...

As incredible as his numbers are, 3 guys in JV were surpassed him with ease (as did his teammate). Froome will be a brilliant superdomestique and may well slow down LESS (not get stronger) in the 3rd week relative to his adversaries. (Of course Roglic won the final TT at the Tdf last year, podiumed at the Giro and won the Vuelta at a canter in the 3rd week, so he knows how to pace himself too... )

Everyone is talking about that 3rd week, but there are still those FIRST 2 weeks to deal with and with 3+ weeks to the Grand Depart, there is not much room for significant improvement. This is especially so given that INEOS has ALL their top flight domestiques and 3 leaders manning the ramparts (and getting dropped).

In contrast, JV looks incredible WITHOUT Kuss and WvA and will not be taking a sprinter to the party so you can be sure that they will not wait until the TdF 3rd week before they let slip the dogs of war....

So should Froome be on the TdF team?

Should he LEAD the TdF team?
Well....Brailsford knows Froome better than anyone- What did HE say??

But...Lets see!

Quality work as always LR...
Loved the livestreams btw. Could you do a video on varying max heart rates in pro riders?
Rob ert
Rob ert:
For what’s its worth, to add complications to the power numbers. Oval rings over read but as per dc rainmaker, those shimano powermeters he is using under read by up to 8ish% in the right crank. Either way pretty much cancels out over reading from the non standard rings.
Steve Smythe
Steve Smythe:
Enjoyed the analysis but don't read too much into what was really a training event for most. Roglic should win tour if he holds form and gets the 3 weeks and Jumbo currently stronger than Ineos but Ineos will probably take Froome. He had been picked for Dauphine and that will probably be the Tour team - Bernal, Thomas, Sivakov, Froome, Kwiatkowski, Van Baarle, Castroviejo
Presume Luke Rowe will be eighth team member for tour as road captain.
If Froome doesn’t impress at Dauphine then Geoghegan Hart (crashed at weekend and highly impressive in previous races) and Amador might replace him or one of the others. Kwiato and Van B don’t look as fit as previous years and this is their first test to join the mostly French races based group.
Thomas will be vastly fitter in 3 weeks as last weekend was his first competition since March and he had not shown god form pre tour 2019 but was still a clear second. Froome will also get much fitter in the next month but barring a disaster Bernal will be a clear team leader but Sivakov is capable of podium.
Ineos will be a different proposition at the Tour (and Dauphine) to last weekend with fitter riders and Fresh faces but Jumbo will have Van Aart to add to the mix. He might win a stage or two but is probably going to do a Kwiato role.
One thing re Jumbo Kruiswijk is very good and very consistent but I don’t think he has ever won a single major race or stage but he is probably a better no.2 than anyone at Ineos.
His Dad James!
His Dad James!:
Fascinating. If you’ve time, please do a follow-up to this on Froome and Thomas after the Tirreno Adriatico, with a view to their Vuelta/Giro prospects.
Any views on whether Froome's contract may guarantee him a TDF slot, given he hits certain form targets? One almost gets the impression from his Twitter post and Strava share that he's been more interested in riding his turns to build and showcase his numbers, than riding for results. IMHO Ineos can't go against this 2020 Jumbo team without Froome, at worst the team and Bernal are going to need his experience when it comes to crunch time.
Might be worth noting this stage had low altitude climbs for the size of the climbs. I don't think people really pay attention to this unless it's very high climbs, but I think it matters a lot.

I also think Sivakov could be their 2nd best bet of winning the Tour.
Raphael Tiziani
Raphael Tiziani:
Maybe he is not in the perfect shape right now. One thing lots of people forget is that he can become stronger through a grand tour. Giro 2018. He said multiple times before the Giro that he is going to build up for the third Giro week and we all know what happened. I can see and understand everyone who says that he is not strong enough to win the tour right now. But who knows what will happen and if he can get back some fitness before the final decisive week.

Personally I really hope Roglic can win the Tour. Not because I like him paticuarly, it just would be nice if another team wins it and not always Sky/Ineos.
Daniel Lassche
Daniel Lassche:
apparently the final spot is between Tao Geoghenhart, Amador and Froome. I dont think Tao will go. So it's either Amador or Froome.. If Froome shows increasing form this week, you have to take him. Especially if he's willing to be a teamplayer.. If they have doubts on that, they may opt for Amador. Also often times teams leave out riders for the TdF that are leaving the team.. But in this case Froome has won them the TdF 5 times, hes a huge name.. they might just take him even for that reason and not get too much backlash either. Besides Froome at 80% is still better than most.
Jorge Perez
Jorge Perez:
Froome should go. He is in more than decent shape, he shows he is willing to work for the designated "capo squadra" and his experience makes him the ideal "Road Captain". TJV this year is a dream team. You need guys like Froome that can read the race, improvise strategies and pull results for the benefit of the team.
Joseph Lycett
Joseph Lycett:
On Stage 3, why was Bernal sitting at the back of the group when Castroviejo was on the front? I know that Bernal always does this, because he likes to survey his opponents and not get caught out from behind, but by doing that, he was allowing Dumoulin to lose the wheel of Castroviejo, so the group was forced to go at Jumbo-Visma’s pace.
Allan Virimai
Allan Virimai:
Chris froome knows how to silence his critics. And he's gonna do that at the TDF 2020. everyone is writing him off, but just watch him conserve his energy for 3 weeks then just launch one nuclear attack, 80 kilometers out and claim the maillot jaune in stunning fashion
Emil Nielsen
Emil Nielsen:
I hope they take Froome. He has showed in recent years, that no one peaks like him (with the possible exception of Thomas). They will know from the number how close he is to Tour form.
rob bonner
rob bonner:
Great content as usual. Keep it up LR!
Justin Mayfield
Justin Mayfield:
I always think of the Strava weight as a suggestion. You can override it by clicking on it and putting in what seems like a more realistic value. Then that is used for all the w/kg calcs. Same for FTP.
Its look like Froome did a lot of more work then you said. I saw yesterday on strava, flyby that he did pull a lot. He did incredible watts. He did like 40-50 watts more in the first climb compared to other in the peleton. Its hard to predict where the wind blows in the mountains. And tour de france 2020 sucks with lots of uphill finishes, and only one mountain TT. I miss the days with prologs, TTT and flat long 50km+ variation at all. This is just a race for the tiny people to shine.
Dorian Braun
Dorian Braun:
Thomas and Rowe told on their podcast that he is already super lean. There were Files out there from the giro 2018attack on the sestriere where his weight was around 68 and 68.5 kg.
Im quite surprised how some pros upload their files. If you want you can get a pretty good estimate of their ftp and draw a w'bal graph showing quite accurately how much they were suffering or how near it was to their limit. I can only think froome expects his power to go way up for the tour still
Brian Messemer
Brian Messemer:
All I know is: I’d love to be doing 124 bpm at 280 watts 🥴
James McD
James McD:
The Lanterne mullet game is strong! Love your work with the commentary - keep it up 👍
Edward Leech
Edward Leech:
I think they have to take Froome but you must bear in mind that in this race he is burying himself to find some form and improve fitness, i wouldn't expect the same if he was minutes down on GC at the tour
The Ferrari method underestimates w/kg quite a bit on steep climbs
Being in the front group half way up the final climb shouldn’t be underestimated. By definition not many can do that.
Andreas Spreitzer
Andreas Spreitzer:
i think Buchmann can get 2nd place! Look at his strave, he is killing it! He flys under the radar and has a really strong team too (Muehlberger, Schachmann, Kämna...)!
I would take him, he has a month to cut down and hit the start of the tour maybe a kilo or so heavy and ride into top shape. I don't think he can win but I don't think Thomas can either. They both need to work for Bernal, play the foil and work the now very stacked looking Jumbo Visma team down. This Tour has the potential to be excellent. Going into a final week with JV in yellow and Ineos remorsely attacking. How the tide would have changed. On another note, I would be interested on your thoughts regarding the reduce teams at M>SR if its not in a race report and its wider usage as I thought it made for a really interesting race.
Lynn Kidd
Lynn Kidd:
Ineos will take Froome as super domestique. Bernal is the team leader no doubt. The strongest team looks to be Jumbo–Visma (a monster team of strength with Roglic, Dumoulin, Kruijswijk, Martin, Gesink, Van Aert).
Thanks. Interesting technical details. But, where did you get Froomy s Max Heartrate? 168 seems low? Of course if his rest HR would be 29...the HR reserve is still 140
Froome will go .. either as a leader OR a team player. Class guy, able to peak and will put the sh!ts up the competition at worst while Bernal takes it
We're still 5 weeks away from the third week in the tour, a lot can happen in that time.
Adam Dickinson
Adam Dickinson:
I think he should go, he's performed enough times in the past to be given a pass for his poor form this time, I expect him to be a good asset and show better than he has so far
Why is Chris Froome’s max heart rate so low (~161)? Does max heart rate decrease with improved fitness like it is for resting heart rate?
Yannick Okpara
Yannick Okpara:
I'm pretty sure his TdF weight is 65-66kg. At least that is what has previously been reported from interviews with the team. Maybe he went up since that, I don't know
I was on the side of the road in the Col de la Biche on sunday. I have to admit Chris Froome worried me more than Geraint Thomas. He looked not comfortable on the bike, he was constantly looking behind. The Jumbo on the other hand... if they are as strong on the Tour, we gonna have a VERY boring Tour de France. Actually the team reminds me a bit US Postal. Which is not a compliment.
Julian Bailey
Julian Bailey:
One thing in Froome's favour is that he is a really solid 3 week rider. If you need your best team towards the tail of the race then he is a master at keeping himself in form and even improving as the stages go by. I also feel that though he may wish to personally win above all else, I don't see him ruining the team's chances of a Bernal win if Bernal has a decent gap on him going into the last week, the team has been his family for too long and he grew into being a top pro by up riding for their benefit. Lastly, which other team is going to be scared of Amador rather than Froome as the key support on a critical climb? Froome gives psychological options.
Carlo Fino
Carlo Fino:
You are an absolute legend. Besides the actual video, which was great in itself, I just learnt two fantastic things:
1) The existence of the "sauce for strava" extension. Possibly the best add on like EVER!
2) The reference to Ferrari's calculation of estimated watts/kg.
ryan phelan
ryan phelan:
Gracias for breakdown bernal was one of first asking for delay or postponement in Olympics not sure his physical or mental preparation. TJV regardless if you think roglic is "peaking to early" or dumoulin is not peaked yet TJV look real strong rest of peloton should be thankful no ttt with wva looking great. Roglic looks damn good. Froome can certainly dig deep always been amazed by how hard he turns himself inside out since 2011
Nick Pilgrim
Nick Pilgrim:
Froome is a master at peaking for ToF. Plus I’m guessing Stage 2 he sat up to save his legs. Jumbo Visma may have peaked early... still 5 weeks away from the pointy end of the Tour.
HighImpact CyclingMemes
HighImpact CyclingMemes:
Of course they will. Team ineos is a giant car advert for Jim Radcliffe. They want to eke out every bit of publicity in the UK car market as they can and leaving a UK grand tour champion out of the running would be crazy.
Poeltl Power
Poeltl Power:
Unless Froome's really struggled with his weight this season he shouldn't be anywhere near 69 KG. His race weight is 66 KG maybe +0.5 KG due to the metal in his leg. Thomas has mentioned consistently when talking about Froome how skinny he is looking (even in December last year).
Danny May
Danny May:
Wild that Froome's max HR is so low. Seems like this is pretty abnormal? I remember seeing some data from Sepp Kuss (probably at last year's Vuelta) where he did ~183bpm for something like 30-40min. Maybe he's an aberration too.
Mr Fuzz
Mr Fuzz:
This is good stuff on the video about rider data, but also the reason why pro cyclists debate about not putting their data up on Strava (Tom Dumoulin just had an interview where he remarked that he doesn't post to Strava so opponents don't know his personal output). So in other words, if riders see this they'll probably stop sharing :(
Secret Agent
Secret Agent:
yes, to NOT take Froome would be insulting to a great champion
Justin Bouchard 💜
Justin Bouchard 💜:
Would you do the live watch alongs with the other races on race pass that have already finished?
Chris Ko
Chris Ko:
Of course, Ineos should take Froome to the Tour de France. Reason 1: he will be strong enough to be a very useful (super-)domestique. Reason 2: they owe him. Yes, he got paid a lot, but the team wouldn't be in this position without him. If he wants to go to the TdF they have to take him, esp. if he is willing to work for the strongest in the team, imho.
Sam Hausmann
Sam Hausmann:
Your VAM calc produces w/kg of fully kitted rider + bike. You need to take into account the bike at UCI limit + probably another couple hundred gs for helmet, kit and shoes.
Joey Baloney
Joey Baloney:
Great analysis, although if Ciro has it right (he typically does) then regardless of how well Froome rode it doesn’t make much sense to bring him. Between Egan, Thomas, kwiato, DvB, Castro, Siv and Rowe, that’s a lot of protected riders and only 1.5 rouleurs between Van Baarle and Rowe. Not impossible at all but that’s one Tony Martin shove away from a vulnerable team. That’s my opinion but I would really like to see him race.
Rhys Williams
Rhys Williams:
Good analysis, as usual. I say, Froome races tdf. His form could be better, but few have his racing nous and tactical edge.
Chris Blackwood
Chris Blackwood:
I’m surprised E Buchman from Bora isn’t racing until the Dauphine (?). Or has he had an injury? Was really strong last year and was hoping he would progress and give Ineos and Jumbo some trouble.
Maks Kucharzyk
Maks Kucharzyk:
Great content as always. Thx
Paul Francis Jenkins
Paul Francis Jenkins:
Good work boss. Onwards and upwards!
Dan McCaffrey
Dan McCaffrey:
Lanterne are you trying to recreate the bucket hat look using only your hair? I approve
Mickel Kobeck
Mickel Kobeck:
YES FROOME should be in the TDF
Kesselly 36 Sumo
Kesselly 36 Sumo:
One thing you fail to know lanterns is that, the drail froome uses in these other grand tour is different from the one he actually use for the TDF and looking @ his position right now some one that come from under such injury and putting up such performance it is not an option welther he should make the team. What froome doing now is trying to weigh the skill and levels of others riders in these so that he will know how better engage them in the TDF trust me you can't beat froome experience these tour for froome right now are only meant for better preparation phase for him.
Dan and Abby
Dan and Abby:
We still got two weeks for Froome to get hot, and then don't forget the TdF is a 3 week race. Never forget the 2018 Giro where Froomey went mad and won the race in week 3. So no need to panic yet....

Though if he gets dumped in the Criterium then it might be squeeky bum time
N. Heroe P
N. Heroe P:
They should bring Froome. If he is on the right trajectory, he would be useful for Bernal in the 3rd week. As far as leadership, not sure. But he could be a loose cannon too, if he knows, he is getting better and better everyday. By the 3rd week, Ineos will already pick their leader, and if he is behind, and feeling strong and a bit rogue, maybe he dares to dream 5th by doing Giro raid? or not... lol. The only question will be if he is getting stronger and stronger by the 3rd week, do you think he'll be a good domestigue for Bernal? We saw how he did to Wiggins. This time he has no incentive to stay and loyal to the team, especially if he knows he can win it. As far as power data, like you said, it could be skewed since Froome is using oval chainring. And Isn't Ineos using spider power meter? Shimano I believe? It's not the most accurate power meter either. As far as I know, the pedal based Favero Assioma is the power meter in the market currently that can measure oval chainring correctly.
Peter Hansen
Peter Hansen:
Apparently Chris Froome had had a bike change on stage 1 and that was why he didn't make it back. I think Cycling News mentioned it. Might also explain why he didn't bother posting.
Steve Long
Steve Long:
Froome was a one the front on stage two. after his turn he dropped off. he never got dropped.. watch the race
I know Sivakov said he wanted to ride the tour, but if you're team ineos, do you have a conversation about sending him to the Giro instead? I'm really not sold on carapaz this year
John Deere
John Deere:
Anybody see the Dauphine ? Froome is done. In 5 days he lost more than 1 hour and was dropped in about each climb. He was a great riders but he is finished now. He should retire before he gets humiliated in the Tour de France. Also Thomas did look very bad in the Dauphine. Ineos should go with a younger group of riders like Bernal, Carapaz and Sikarov.
Marcelo Mendes
Marcelo Mendes:
yes in my opinion I don't see it in a position to line up for the Tour and if it's just outside weight
Only odds I like for tdf are those of Kruiswijk and Buchmann
Absolutely Froome should go.
Could it simply be that half the Ineos team is overweight and they are carefully controlling their calorie intake to reach race weight by the end of the month, hence them dropping out on the last climbs, but showing decent power readings in the interim? Is that something teams do?
Careful you don’t join the anti Froome brigade, if he was domestique ... he WAS Training. 2nd/ Giro 2018 ... he left his best till last week. Showing up is still a win.
Piskarlo Panus
Piskarlo Panus:
Love the content man and what a great mullet!
Gidi Segal
Gidi Segal:
I think oval chainrings overread by about 6%
American Cycling France
American Cycling France:
I think hes solid enough for sure. Is he going to win? nah. If they didnt take him, who do you think they would replace him with?
Shortened Dauphine = don't have to pull out early to have enough time for a course of Triamcinolone
Justin Klerk
Justin Klerk:
@Lanternerouge Why is Kruiswijk according to you not part of the trident of TJV anymore? I was a bit puzzled after I read that.
Can u do a power analysis for remco evenepoel on stage 4 of TDP ?
V Diesel
V Diesel:
Does Froome have to look at his powerdata ALL the time when riding up a hill?
Paul Cuthbertson
Paul Cuthbertson:
Brailsford is no dummy and INEOS are out to win. Froome will go to the TDF. I think INEOS will see who is the strongest at week three, GT, EB, CF and decide then who will be the lead rider.
Eric Ballard
Eric Ballard:
Can't help but think it was a mistake for Froome to base his diet decisions off a Netflix documentary while being on top of the world of cycling. If it ain't broke, don't fix it
Otto Von Brak
Otto Von Brak:
How do you get all those data (watts/kg, Energy etc...) from Strava?
Chris Sharp
Chris Sharp:
Just my opinion but I don’t believe it’s Ineos year for the TdF win! Why not?

After the three ex winners proclaiming the road will decide - I believe them, only it will be another team. chris Froome is still recovering from last years crash, G is not on form and Egan is now nursing a “back” injury.

For that reason I believe it’s wide open - hooray for us spectators, bring it on!!!
ben dover
ben dover:
Sweet helmet...I have the same one in my collection!!! You’re ok in my book...
Hernan Alvarado
Hernan Alvarado:
Froome and Thomas should go to support Bernal who is way above them at this time.
C Island
C Island:
Hello just catching up in the chalet in Verbier. Hiking holiday. Tricky one. How does it work for Ineos? As their sponsor is a wealthy person in chemical industry none of us will be running out to buy Ineos products! Whereas team sky at least was a consumer business. Maybe a LR on team sponsors...I kind of get Sunweb with holidays others have me more foxed! So maybe he says we're in it to win it and get Froomey in no matter what. On the other hand the owner and Brailsford could be kind of no way José in which case Froomey is zen more time with wife and kids on the beach in Monaco. I think he's in as a super domestique. He might get a stage but will not compete for GC leaving him free to avoid anymore accidents. Thing is does GT need to stay close to Bernal to keep options open or is it a one trick pony this year. Coffee over🤪
N L:
Dead and buried. Just remind me what were people saying in 2018 Giro after stage 18? On weight: His 2015 Vo2 max test he was at 69.9kg, 10% fat 2 weeks before Vuelta. He rides half his fat away to get down to 67kg. He's on track and he'll be there in week 3 when the rest are dying and Bernal will fall away: U
unproven in a real 3 week course and beaten by Tincana in national TT!
Lennert Vanrompay
Lennert Vanrompay:
Froome should go, i think he will be more valuable than Amador or Hart.
Rickard Eriksson
Rickard Eriksson:
he's 67 kilos at tdf.
they will take him as a worst case scenario is that he will be more ready for the vuelta
I use the not at race weight a lot
Going for the most cultural Australian haircut I see!
Can we have sideways shot of the glorious mullet?
Ed Jesuitas
Ed Jesuitas:
Amazing how you have access to these data.
Froome never was in front in the first 2 climbs
Alec Munnur
Alec Munnur:
Is bpm rider rider dependent? Froomes max is 162bpm and avg is 120bpm. Is is so low bc of training or does it vary depending on the rider?
tobias Lillelund Christensen
tobias Lillelund Christensen:
great video
Bill Meehan
Bill Meehan:
Will Froome still drop to the back off camera, take his inhaler hit, and then attack from the back?
Carapaz and Bernal are the ones in form and should go unless the Dauphine throws up anything new