He Predicted a Trump Win in 2016. What's His Forecast For 2020? | NYT Opinion

Right now, polls say Joe Biden has a healthy lead over President Trump. But we’ve been here before (cue 2016), and the polls were, frankly, wrong. One man, however, was not. The historian Allan Lichtman was the lonely forecaster who predicted Mr. Trump’s victory in 2016 — and also prophesied the president would be impeached. That’s two for two. But Professor Lichtman’s record goes much deeper. In 1980, he developed a presidential prediction model that retrospectively accounted for 120 years of U.S. election history. Over the past four decades, his system has accurately called presidential victors, from Ronald Reagan in ’84 to, well, Mr. Trump in 2016.

In the video Op-Ed above, Professor Lichtman walks us through his system, which identifies 13 “keys” to winning the White House. Each key is a binary statement: true or false. And if six or more keys are false, the party in the White House is on its way out.

So what do the keys predict for 2020? To learn that, you’ll have to watch the video.

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100+ comentarios:

Nick Manning
Nick Manning:
I'll save you 7 minutes. He predicts Biden.
s e a n a s l a m
s e a n a s l a m:
If trump wins. His credibility is gone forever.
Trk Digital
Trk Digital:
reminds me of when the cnn reporter was saying there was no riots meanwhile over his shoulder the city was burning...lol
Name's Bill Cipher
Name's Bill Cipher:
plot twist: after 20 years, the people just started voting who he predicted
Oklahomascout
Oklahomascout:
Voiceover: "Alan lickman is always right"
2020: "i've dissapointed a lot of people in my time"
hey1111112222222
hey1111112222222:
I will come back to this video after the elections.
Sandese Aatehain
Sandese Aatehain:
"...voters aren't fools..." Yeah, stopped listening after that
J
J:
"He's about to predict who will win this election, but before we get to that-"
Operation Mayhem
Operation Mayhem:
To be revisited. I will be back in a month’s time.
Phinehas Zheng
Phinehas Zheng:
The guy predicts that Trump will lose the white house, there saved ya about 7 min

Time Stamp: 6:29 (so you all know I ain't lying)
Plantogenet ID
Plantogenet ID:
I know this guy is honest when he said Biden is uncharismatic
J Pérez
J Pérez:
As Trump says I will start my Chinesse language classes...
Changsoo Hahm
Changsoo Hahm:
Despite his great track record, he is strangely unconvincing...
Dhrubo Hridraz
Dhrubo Hridraz:
Many people will trust him cuz he is a Democrat and predicted Trump for 2016. I am gonna trust him for saying Biden is uncharismatic 😂
Maxmillion Mangrum
Maxmillion Mangrum:
“He’s too dangerous to be left alive.” -Mace Windu
Golden Guilder
Golden Guilder:
“The best way to predict the future is too choose it”

- Abraham Lincoln - (The First Republican)
Baylee Bardot
Baylee Bardot:
He’s basically our political Groundhog Day
John Jones
John Jones:
"He's had no foreign/military success."

Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi: "Am I a joke to you?"
Eduard Voinea
Eduard Voinea:
the covid factors aren’t completely false for trump, i’m sure many people i’ll understand that it was out of his control
Barr-y
Barr-y:
He has balls of steel if he thinks he can predict 2020😂
Erusman
Erusman:
I have a bad feeling about his forecast.
Aerol Christopher Infante
Aerol Christopher Infante:
Predicting earthquakes to predicting presidency.

Both are disasters.
nicolas dantes
nicolas dantes:
5:49 no foreign success
Israel, UAE and Bahrain: are we a joke to you?
dragon
dragon:
SHORT ANSWER: He says Trump will lose. Saved ya 6-7 minutes.
The TNTsheep
The TNTsheep:
"The best way to predict the future is to choose it."
VOTE
Jason Fields
Jason Fields:
While I agree with the keys system I disagree with how they were allocated.
Pramod P
Pramod P:
Professor predicts something,
Le 2020: Let me introduce myself here
Michael Wiesner
Michael Wiesner:
I’m curious about the short and long term economic growth. If it wasn’t for covid would the scale have tipped in trumps favor?
Mikey paul
Mikey paul:
The peace treaties he's implemented over the last few months were a huge deal. You're wrong this time bud.
Chris H.
Chris H.:
Hmmm. Brokering a historic middle east peace deal, that's a monumental success that wasn't covered here.
JusticeCorbin
JusticeCorbin:
50/50 doesn’t mean prediction. If that’s the case, then half of America is psychic, because it’s what half of America predicted. It was either Clinton or Trump. Which Actually means zero prediction.
roweboat
roweboat:
I think his measurement of economic growth and handling of foreign affairs is way off. Grasping at straws to give Biden a win here.
adan Vazquez
adan Vazquez:
I feel like the pandemic might be an outlier that might not apply to the keys much. Something to keep in mind
Alucard
Alucard:
Your keys are diluted by the censorship of true Americans, he appeals to more Americans then you even know about, therefore your prediction will be wrong, this is what happens when the spread of misinformation reaches even the “insiders” 🤣
Marcos Tirse
Marcos Tirse:
No military successes? Killed the leader of ISIS with a dog.
chris miller
chris miller:
yeah, republicans lost house
because the powers that pea
can not give one party absolute
power..he should know this
famos
famos:
Does this model account for pandemics? It’s been over 100 years since the last one right?
Robert Tisch
Robert Tisch:
Well Allen, you just screwed your perfect record since '84, I believe.
Lorenzo Brigode
Lorenzo Brigode:
They should do another video with him because in the couple of months that have passed, SO MUCH has changed.
Bebe
Bebe:
Before the pandemic, Trump had it in the bag. After the pandemic, not as confident.
Birphung Narzary
Birphung Narzary:
Baghdadi was killed and sulaimani was killed so he didn't failed much in that aspect
Franco Carlini Camaiora
Franco Carlini Camaiora:
"Even that one" thanks for confirming your bias
RCJH2019
RCJH2019:
3 months is a LONG time to go. Trump announced 2 Middle east peace deals since this....
Manny Rodriguez
Manny Rodriguez:
The most unconvincing video I've ever seen. Now I'm off yo go vote Trump.
TONY DECKER
TONY DECKER:
Israel and UAE peace treaty. Historic. Meet with NK leader. Historic.
Charles
Charles:
I predict this guy will get the same haircut the next time he goes to the barbershop.
TA Studios
TA Studios:
Trump has had major wins abroad though. He’s ordered the deaths of many huge terrorists.
Paul Stack
Paul Stack:
When Trump wins I'm going to rub it in to the non Trumpers.
Kapil Chhabria
Kapil Chhabria:
one of his keys: mid term gains, is almost always negative for the incumbent since 1992. what use is a predictor when it is consistently irrelevant?
Carlos Adrian
Carlos Adrian:
I wonder how much money the democrats pay to this guy to sold out his credibility ?
Ian Balls
Ian Balls:
I think this election is a tough one, the virus makes a lot of these categories messy
SHA'UL YISRAEL
SHA'UL YISRAEL:
On the ballot as a third-party spoiler is Covid-19 against Trump.
Eli Gaming
Eli Gaming:
This is a risky move if trump wins then his whole career burns to ashes
Nightly Horrors
Nightly Horrors:
Watch when he gets this one wrong he gonna be like I meant the popular vote guys
Ardian Pratama
Ardian Pratama:
I think Trump is charismatic incumbent, for better or worse, that point is true, so according to the keys Donald Trump would win the second term
bach5861
bach5861:
Don't believe, just go and vote.
3DTV
3DTV:
He's gonna fail this time!
valters Folkmanis
valters Folkmanis:
If this metric is real then trump has won as he did make a historic peace agreement between Israel and United Arab Emirates.
Bruno Amezcua
Bruno Amezcua:
The "Trump is charismatic" is what it all reduces to, the previous ones are pretty clear, but that one, saying he isn't because he only appeals to a "narrow slice of people"... oof, idk, it's not so narrow, and that key would predict him winning so...
hernanc
hernanc:
I’d say some of the so called keys are not soooo clearly true or false...
coolguy700able
coolguy700able:
I actually like his method of predicting election outcomes. It's definitely more interesting than simply looking at polling data.
tutorial man 777x
tutorial man 777x:
How would he predict if the pres had 8 years already
Coke Official Very
Coke Official Very:
whos here after the president gets elected
Anthony Rynes
Anthony Rynes:
What’s funny is that he said the hardest part is keeping his own politics out of it. He’s pretty bad at that😂
Robb Stark
Robb Stark:
Biden is the least charismatic blob od human flesh that exists he couldnt talk me into going to a party
Esben Olsen
Esben Olsen:
Plot twist: he counts the votes
johs Djd
johs Djd:
Of course the NY post say this a very liberal paper.
Shadow Paws The Panda
Shadow Paws The Panda:
One of those keys changed, the Foreign/Military Success of the Middle-east Israel peace deal is that new key that Trump was missing.
Edward Miessner
Edward Miessner:
"He has had no foreign/military failures"
Kurds of Syria: "Are we a joke to you?"
VenomXbl
VenomXbl:
Trump literally made 2 Middle East peace deals happen. How can you say that isn’t a major military success?
Armour
Armour:
Turns out the Russian guy was KGB and this guy has been secretly rigging every election since.
Jung Choe
Jung Choe:
He says it all. 'I am a Democrat." New York Fake Times. Ha Ha.
VENTURE HOLLY
VENTURE HOLLY:
Society doesn’t take History as a field of study seriously enough imo.
Jacob del Rosario
Jacob del Rosario:
“I’m joe Biden and I approve this message”
Tianna MH
Tianna MH:
Regardless of what this video says, go out and vote!
Jared Rudolph
Jared Rudolph:
“It’s hard to keep my views out of it” this is literally a bigger lie than any Biden’s said in 47 years...well maybe not but u get the point lol😂 TRUMP 2020
Jay Costa
Jay Costa:
Apparently he hasn't bought a new suit since he started predicting elections.
geordiebr1
geordiebr1:
I predict his wig will come off just before bed each night.
Puaaeloa Netzler
Puaaeloa Netzler:
Have no idea how the election gonna go. But gonna be surprised either way, maybe even more if the professor is right tho.
a tomato
a tomato:
This video is gonna age horribly if Trump wins.
TheodorStrauss
TheodorStrauss:
When I need to explain to foreign friends why the election looks closer than they'd expect, maybe I'll use this video. :P
Yryr Yryr
Yryr Yryr:
If Trump wins, I am who am typing this, is going to be a millionaire in the next 120 days.
Nikolaj Schultz Nielsen
Nikolaj Schultz Nielsen:
Theres just one problem with his interpretation. The now cordial relations with North Korea was a major foreign policy success abroad
ryderiii
ryderiii:
Most of the false he gave is actually worked against Biden so this prediction is false
R C
R C:
I read his system. I don’t think it applies here. His system only works under normal circumstances. We are not living under normal circumstances.
Jack Noonan
Jack Noonan:
Someone remind me to watch this again after the election
chris miller
chris miller:
ironic, because at that time
economy was booming?
hmmmmm
Moe's Legos
Moe's Legos:
Lol, the Abraham accords one of the, if not the biggest peace deals among middle eastern countries?
Yuri Pavlovsky
Yuri Pavlovsky:
he says he didnt predicted al gore wining the popular vote but not the presidency but didnt hillary had more votes in 2015 too?
daironification
daironification:
I'll see you all the day after the election, regardless of the winner. Good luck, remember to vote, but most importantly *(COUNTRY OVER PARTY)*
dshmurd
dshmurd:
can't wait to see you guys come back to this video and delete it lmao
Moraltheme
Moraltheme:
There’s always a first time for everything
terrell lewis
terrell lewis:
This guy will be in the next "Trump can't win compilation.
Steve Kimsey
Steve Kimsey:
I think he got his information for true false from watching CNN.
Birb Birbington
Birb Birbington:
If the dude gets this one right Ima just assume he's a time traveller
Alexa Montoya
Alexa Montoya:
Hm his keys aren’t too bad of logic so ig yay
Deepak Mangsuli
Deepak Mangsuli:
He’s a smart guy and as a mathematician it’s interesting to see how they tried to break it down. But maths is famously filled with complexities. “All models are wrong. Some models are just more useful”.
chris miller
chris miller:
and by the way, professor
no ross in 92 that gave
the clintons the white house
CHANGING OF THE GUARD
BUDDY
J Pérez
J Pérez:
6:30 your welcome...
caden Phenicie
caden Phenicie:
i do have one problem from in the future, the major foreign/success is now absolutely true, so no earthquake. sorry?