How Did These Goals Go In? - We Explain How Goal Probability Works

How likely or unlikely is a goal? Expected Goals explained!
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Bundesliga fans ask themselves this question every matchday: How likely or unlikely is a goal? And with goal probability it can be answered.
To what degree is a goal the expected outcome in any given scoring scenario? Which chances really have to be put away – and which finishes amount to minor statistical miracles? Expected Goals (xGoals), powered by AWS (Amazon Web Services), has the precisely calibrated answers, taking account of multiple factors such as pressure from opponents, distance from goal and keeper position. We take a look at how probability has been matching up with reality so far this season. Which goal of this season left you speechless? Let us know in the comments.

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77 comentarios:

Abhishek Shekhar
Abhishek Shekhar:
Legends say Lord Sterlinho had a goal probability of 101% but he had the power to defy the gods😂😂
NF630
NF630:
Note: this probability scale isn’t accurate for when Kepa is in goal.
Caleb Adjorlolo
Caleb Adjorlolo:
Everyone first until you refresh, then you realize you are not so fresh
BAYERN FEVER
BAYERN FEVER:
Even if there is a 0% chance, Adminho would still score
Mikolaj Wojnicki
Mikolaj Wojnicki:
When Lewandowski takes the penalty it's more like a 97% goal probability ;)
Cr Laurentiu
Cr Laurentiu:
Here's how Goal Probability works :
It doesn't.
Zayaan Khan
Zayaan Khan:
Other leagues should take tips from bundesliga YouTube channel:)
- TheDiamondDasher -
- TheDiamondDasher -:
Adminho can score from anywhere, no competition.
Its Timo Time
Its Timo Time:
Because they go in the net...
Michel Klein
Michel Klein:
I'd actually love to know the probability of Christian Pulisic' goal which was actually meant to be a cross. I forgot the opponent, but it was a tight angle from the right side of the pitch!
Rodney Moonga
Rodney Moonga:
LITERALLY one of the best football channels ever
The Moskstrauman
The Moskstrauman:
Adminho‘s goal probability is always 100%
Diki Ki
Diki Ki:
Kramaric is on fire this seasons🔥can't wait see more from Kramaric🔥
Tingo
Tingo:
I'd like to see a video of high percent goal chances saved or blocked by insane reads/plays from defenders and keepers
Alfando Savant
Alfando Savant:
When the measurement is using the standard metric, thank you, just thank you... :")
IMJUSTJZ
IMJUSTJZ:
OKAY sooo..... its good and everything... but powered by AWS? i think that f1 fans can back me up
XV-Series
XV-Series:
OMG how on earth can you do that. This is great man I mean I wish I could do one of those it's awesome I love it, is very talentive. Keep it up....
XV-Series
XV-Series:
OMG how on earth can you do that. This is great man I mean I wish I could do one of those it's awesome I love it, is very talentive. Keep it up....
ROBERT LEWANDOWSKI
ROBERT LEWANDOWSKI:
Kramaric is in the form of his life.
SAIPRAVIN PRAKASH
SAIPRAVIN PRAKASH:
ADMINHO....... WAITING FOR YOU TO SCORE AN OWN GOAL
AQ16
AQ16:
Imagine getting a heart from Adminho
Yupp Dupp
Yupp Dupp:
What a Vid and An Idea
Amazing just Like KIMMICH'S GOAL
Lampard's Comments
Lampard's Comments:
How do you explain Keissling's side netting goal
Farhiya Abdullahi
Farhiya Abdullahi:
Top notch work from Bundesliga editors
Carlo Scognamiglio
Carlo Scognamiglio:
Just amazing video
MrRebro rebro
MrRebro rebro:
I like it! Great, want much more!
Waleed Riaz
Waleed Riaz:
This is insane 😍
fazli avasyabhavi
fazli avasyabhavi:
Where are you adminho?
Nico R
Nico R:
And I thought you would explain how exactly the maths behind would work (f.e. how much the probability drops if a defender is right in front of you). Instead you only explained which circumstances can effect the probability - guess what: It's already obvoius that a higher distance or more defenders makes it more unlikely...
AQ16
AQ16:
Claim here before 10k views
Aditya Khare
Aditya Khare:
Hi ADMINHO😎😇
Michał S
Michał S:
Hello kids 🤣
Jakob Smith
Jakob Smith:
Just when I thought this channel couldn't get any better it gets better
Nam Khánh Lý
Nam Khánh Lý:
I wonder the probability of Sergio Aguero goal against Burnley 2017
Nitin Kymar
Nitin Kymar:
Some goalkeepers make that goal probability 100%
House for all
House for all:
In 6 min wow
Sinan Shanavas 10
Sinan Shanavas 10:
Top class strikers convince the ball to go back in the net
Wild Mango
Wild Mango:
More of these please
jotaka 04
jotaka 04:
First f1 now the bundesliga aws pls
Andy Hale
Andy Hale:
Is this the same AWS which always manages to nail overtake probabilities in F1? 😂😂😂
souleymane diawara
souleymane diawara:
nice bundesliga very cool
RISHAV KALONI
RISHAV KALONI:
To score a goal u just need practice and some luck 🤠😜
Pooja Acosta
Pooja Acosta:
Wow
Tirrshel Ram
Tirrshel Ram:
How is adminho the goat. Unexplainable
Caleb Williamson
Caleb Williamson:
helloooo Im earlyyy, let's go schalke!!
Last Game
Last Game:
Put karius in goal then see how probability will work
Rehan Zahid
Rehan Zahid:
When Adminho gets the ball, theres a high chance that he will put that
.
..
...
....
iN hIs oWn nEt
Katiuscia Fabello
Katiuscia Fabello:
LEWANGOALSKI 👑
The Best Sticker
En Wordl🌍 For Ever
Chidera Nnajiofor
Chidera Nnajiofor:
the only player to have 500% chance of scoring but still not score is lord sterling and the only gk hu has 700% of keeping a ball but still flops is emperor arizabalaga
Vidyut Muralidharan
Vidyut Muralidharan:
how did adminho's goal go in?
unexplainable
Mo Sports
Mo Sports:
Lewandowsi is a Goal scoring Machine.. Anyhow a shot from him is always Dangerous..lewanGOALski
La puissance k-reen La puissance k-reen
La puissance k-reen La puissance k-reen:
https://youtu.be/Wm_76Z2x0Ts 😭🙏💓🤞n'ais tu pas déjà fatiguée de voir les même artiste chaque jour, alors je m'appelle nouvelle génération musicale Imagine un peu que tu clique sur ce lien et t'abonne a moi , c'est juste une proposition je ne sais pas si ça te dit ????💓🤞🙏🙏 https://youtu.be/Wm_76Z2x0Ts...'..
_ valentace
_ valentace:
Adminho is the best admin if you compare to other admins no cap
Devesh Mittal
Devesh Mittal:
Koi Bhi
Nathan Desmond
Nathan Desmond:
They didn't, that's how
Peter Gunayaka
Peter Gunayaka:
Kramaric is like prime giroud
3almi _q8
3almi _q8:
Kramaric good Goal
Dipalee Atre
Dipalee Atre:
What is happening to Sommer lately?
adreta ryder
adreta ryder:
The only issue is, some players are odd defying in Germany...
Jette Romanelli
Jette Romanelli:
hello
DontPressOnMyProfilePic
DontPressOnMyProfilePic:
Kepa can make that 400%
Solihin
Solihin:
The lower the percentages are, the worse the keeper looks
Ada 78
Ada 78:
Does it mean, from goal probability that left side of the GKs side is weaker?
ayske1
ayske1:
As a goalkeeper... If the guy is within the 18 yard box and has clear site often I think he has 50% chance of scoring. Even the example, the guy being unmarked, if he hits it well it feels more than 4% chance!!!
Katiuscia Fabello
Katiuscia Fabello:
ThomAssist Men
The Best
MULLER 👑
Þorbjörg Ragnarsdóttir
Þorbjörg Ragnarsdóttir:
I bet the one talking was a defender in his career most of this goals are easier then missing it
Nakori Chung
Nakori Chung:
Do how did these not go in next
Immanuel M
Immanuel M:
I know the premier league is the best league in the world but vedeos on thiw Channel make me think twice
- TheDiamondDasher -
- TheDiamondDasher -:
If Lewandowski is playing he'll get a goal in somehow.
Aamer Quazi
Aamer Quazi:
Don't mind me, just another comment saying that the Buundesliga yt channel is the best.
KuzeyBroi
KuzeyBroi:
G... Lewandolski
Footy Universe
Footy Universe:
Kamaric lewangoalski erling halland Muller
Nammuiteu Pame
Nammuiteu Pame:
WORLD'S TOP NUMBER 1 FOOTBALLER BEST PLAYER BAYERN STRIKER 9 SKILLS SATISFIED PERFECTS l LOVED YOU SO MUCH MUCH MUCH MORES ROBERT LEWANDOWSKl GOOD STANDARD'S HANDSOME CHARMINGLY SMILING FACES SMART MAN HUMBLES LIFESTYLES BRILLIANT'S DESERVES FOOTBALLER BEST PLAYER GOD BLESS YOU MORES PRAISES THE LORD
Vid Tuber
Vid Tuber:
Bundesliga channel is most entertaining
Dwi Sapto
Dwi Sapto:
well! that's good analysis, but football is not mathematic. Angelino dive to receive the ball i'm very sure that he's not calculate distance, speed of the ball, or how large space he have. it's just ......... i don't know what. "instinct"? maybe.
Marc Schneider
Marc Schneider:
This means the technic is wrong mathematicaly speaking if so many goals are scored in 4% probability this only means other chreterias should be considered
João Victor Correia CAP
João Victor Correia CAP:
Der deutsche Fußball ist der beste in Europa